Predikce sluneční a geomagnetické aktivity

Solar activity forecast for the period

March 15 - March 21, 2024

Activity level: mostly low to moderate
X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A): in the range B6.1 - C2.4
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 121-185
Events: class C (1-8/day), class M (0-8/period), class X (0-3/period), proton (0-1/period)
Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range 61-172


Vlastislav Feik
RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic
e-mail: sunwatch(at)asu.cas.cz

 

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period

March 15 - March 21, 2024

Quiet: Mar 16 - 18, 20 - 21
Unsettled: Mar 15, 18 - 20
Active: possible Mar 15, 19
Minor storm: unlikely about Mar 19
Major storm: 0
Severe storm: 0
Geomagnetic activity summary:

Next week, we expect at most quiet to unsettled conditions. More unsettled conditions with possible active event can occur tomorrow, Friday, March 15, and also about Tuesday, March 19. Then, we expect quiet to unsettled conditions return.

Tomas Bayer, RWC Prague 
Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague
Department of Geomagnetism
Budkov observatory (BDV)

 

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period

March 15 - March 21, 2024

Geomagnetic field will be: 

Quiet on:  
Quiet to unsettled on:  
Quiet to active on:  
Unsettled to active on:  
Active to disturbed:
 
Solar wind will intensify on:
 

 

Remarks:

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere March 15 - March 21, 2024
Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere – March 14, 2024
 
In the last seven days, there have been repeated situations where we expected a CME to hit the Earth's magnetic field (while a weak G1 class geomagnetic storm was predicted by NOAA), but there have been at most only isolated upswings, with activity at K = 4. The active region of AR3599 did return to the solar disk, but it was much smaller and less active than during the last solar rotation (it did, however, produce at least a strong M7.4 class solar flare on March 10 at 1213 UT).

Shortly after AR3599 sets behind the southwestern limb of the solar disk, the former AR3590 rises in the northeast. According to helioseismological observations, it remains the largest of all on the Sun's far side. Its activity will have a decisive influence on the evolution of shortwave propagation conditions around the approaching equinox.

Thirty-five years ago, at the peak of cycle 22, a powerful CME hit our planet. It happened on March 13, 1989, and within 90 seconds, the entire Hydro-Québec power grid was knocked out. The outage lasted nine hours, millions of Quebecers were without light and heat, and nine months later, the affected area experienced a significant increase in birth rates. The treachery consists in inducing direct currents into the lines, to which the transformers in the alternating current grid offer little resistance.

On March 13, 1989, the biggest storm of the space age occurred. But the bigger one was the "Carrington Event" of September 1859. It produced a storm twice as powerful as the one mentioned in March 1989. It later turned out that the cause was not one, but two CMEs, and came from the X4.5 eruptions of March 10 and M7.3 of March 12.

F. K. Janda, A.R.S. OK1HH
e-mail: ok1hh(at)crk.cz; ok1hh(at)rsys.cz
Pmail: OK1HH(at)OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU

 

Poznámka:

Informace jsou přebírány z uvedených externích zdrojů a z důvodů přesnosti jsou zveřejňovány výhradně v anglickém jazyce.

 

Připravované akce

Přednáška "Zpráva o zatmění Slunce 21. srpna"
16. 10. 2017, 19:00 hodin, Zlín

 


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