Predikce sluneční a geomagnetické aktivity

Solar activity forecast for the period

October 30 - November 05, 2026

Activity level:	very low to low
X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A):	in the range B1.0-B3.0
Radio flux (10.7 cm):	a fluctuation in the range 86-95
Events:	class C (0-2/day), class M (0/period), class X (0/period), proton (0/period)
Relative sunspot number (Ri):	in the range 21-55

Martina Pavelková
RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic
e-mail: sunwatch(at)asu.cas.cz

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period

October 30 - November 05, 2026

Quiet:	Oct 30
Unsettled:	Nov 3 - 5
Active:	Nov 2 - 3, 5
Minor storm:	Oct 31 - Nov 1, 5
Major storm:	unlikely Oct 31
Severe storm:	0
Geomagnetic activity summary:	Friday, October 31, we expect the geomagnetic field quiet to unsettled yet. During the night October 31 / November 1, we expect a significant geomagnetic activity increase with probalble storm event (minor or unlikely major storm). Then, since November 3, we expect a partial activity decrease to at most unsettled level. At the end of currently forecasted period, unsettled to active conditions can return.

Tomas Bayer, RWC Prague
Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague
Department of Geomagnetism
Budkov observatory (BDV)

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period

October 30 - November 05, 2026

Remarks:

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere October 30 - November 05, 2026

Solar activity is currently at a very low level. There are usually two numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk, although we came very close to having at least one day with no sunspots. We can continue to expect solar activity to remain at a very low level, with the possible occurrence of isolated class C flares. The geomagnetic field has been calm in recent days, and and also the solar wind speed is also relatively low.

Although higher solar activity would be more favorable for ionospheric propagation of short waves, particularly at higher frequencies, the relatively low solar wind speed and the influence of the interplanetary magnetic field—including its longitudinal component Bz—are favorable factors now, near the equinox. This is despite a somewhat higher concentration of free electrons. There is no indication that the current situation will change significantly, and therefore the current trend is expected to continue.

F. K. Janda, A.R.S. OK1HH

e-mail: ok1hh(at)crk.cz; ok1hh(at)rsys.cz

Pmail: OK1HH(at)OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU