Predikce sluneční a geomagnetické aktivity

Solar activity forecast for the period

Jul 03 – Jul 09, 2026

Activity level:	moderate
X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A):	in the range B8.5-C3.5
Radio flux (10.7 cm):	a fluctuation in the range 150-230
Events:	class C (3-12/day), class M (1-5/period), class X (0-1/period), proton (0-1/period)
Relative sunspot number (Ri):	in the range 130-195

Karolina Knesplova
RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic
e-mail: sunwatch(at)asu.cas.cz

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period

Jul 03 – Jul 09, 2026

Quiet:	Jul 05 - 07
Unsettled:	Jul 04 - 05, 08 - 09
Active:	Jul 03, 08 - 09
Minor storm:	possible about Jul 03, 09
Major storm:	unlikely Jul 03
Severe storm:	0
Geomagnetic activity summary:	Tomorrow, Friday, July 3, we expect geomagnetic activity enhancement to minor, or, less probably, major storm. Minor storm conditions can persist to Saturday, July 4, when we expect a partial decrease to at most unsettled level. Since Sunday, July 5, we expect gaeomagnetic activity decrease continue to quiet to unsettled level Till Wednesday, July 8. The last day, another active event with a possible minor storm can occur.

Tomas Bayer, RWC Prague
Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague
Department of Geomagnetism
Budkov observatory (BDV)

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period

Jul 03 – Jul 09, 2026

Remarks:

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere Jul 03 – Jul 09, 2026

Near the extensive active region AR4478, which the Solar Orbiter had been observing for several days before it rose on the southeastern limb of the solar disk, a small region, AR4479, was initially discovered. Both regions grew rapidly in the following days, while the configuration of their magnetic fields indicated nearby increased eruptive activity. High-energy flares occurred primarily on and after June 30, while some were accompanied by CMEs.

Because the CMEs occurred near the solar central meridian, Earth was strongly affected by an intensified solar wind. Shortwave propagation conditions were favorable during the so-called positive phase of the disturbance on June 30, but very unfavorable during the negative phase on July 1. A similar pattern may recur in the coming days!

F. K. Janda, A.R.S. OK1HH

e-mail: ok1hh(at)crk.cz; ok1hh(at)rsys.cz

Pmail: OK1HH(at)OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU