Predikce sluneční a geomagnetické aktivity

Jana Hrabalova
RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic
e-mail: sunwatch(at)asu.cas.cz
 

Tomas Bayer, RWC Prague 
Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague
Department of Geomagnetism
Budkov observatory (BDV)
 

Geomagnetic field will be: 

Remarks:

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere May 20 - May 26, 2022 Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere - May 19, 2022
(Free continuation of my Earth's magnetic field activity predictions, published between 1978 - 2021.)

In the last seven days, solar activity has risen monotonously. Moderate flares have been observed almost daily. Highest level X-rays belonged to
X1.5 class eruption (start time 13:50 UTC, peak time 13:55 UTC, end time 13:59 UTC on May 10th from NOAA AR 3006 in the southwest quadrant, classified as magnetic type beta-gamma -delta). During the daytime, moderate flares often caused a Short-Wave Fadeout. AR 3007 and AR 3014 also evolved into the beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration.
No fibrous eruption was observed in any of the fibers on the solar disc.
Observed coronal holes were relatively small, for this reason too, the geomagnetic activity was mostly low. The expected arrival of CME, related to the flares of classes X1.5 and C4.7 on 10 May did not arrive on Earth.
The decrease in geomagnetic activity together with the increase in the intensity of solar X-rays contributed to the fact that the critical frequencies of the ionospheric layer F2 were above average, increased further since 15 May.

 

Poznámka:

Informace jsou přebírány z uvedených externích zdrojů a z důvodů přesnosti jsou zveřejňovány výhradně v anglickém jazyce.