Predikce sluneční a geomagnetické aktivity

Solar activity forecast for the period

November 25 - December 01, 2022

Activity level:	mostly low
X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A):	in the range B2.5 - B8.0
Radio flux (10.7 cm):	a fluctuation in the range 100-125
Events:	class C (0-5/day), class M (0-4/period), class X (0/period), proton (0/period)
Relative sunspot number (Ri):	in the range 65 - 120

Martina Pavelkova
RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic
e-mail: sunwatch(at)asu.cas.cz

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period

November 25 - December 01, 2022

Quiet:	Nov 29 - 30
Unsettled:	Nov 25 - 30
Active:	Nov 25, 27 - 28, Dec 01
Minor storm:	possible Nov 25, 28, Dec 01
Major storm:	0
Severe storm:	0
Geomagnetic activity summary:	Next week, we expect geomagnetic activity enhancement. The mean level is expected at an unsettled degree. Minor storming event are possible about November 25, 28, and December 1. Nevertheless, the probability is lower, and, we expect active episodes (with local K-index = 4). Between these days, we expect at most unsettled conditions.

Tomas Bayer, RWC Prague
Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague
Department of Geomagnetism
Budkov observatory (BDV)

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period

November 25 - December 01, 2022

Geomagnetic field will be:

Quiet on:
Quiet to unsettled on:
Quiet to active on:
Unsettled to active on:
Active to disturbed:
Solar wind will intensify on:

Remarks:

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere November 25 - December 01, 2022

(Free continuation of predictions of the Earth's magnetic field activity, published in the years 1978 – 2021.)

Over the past seven days, I have been reminded again of the Woody Allen quote, "If you want to make God laugh, tell him about your plans." At first, the authors of the forecasts of the Earth's magnetic field activity (including Tomas Bayer of the Budkov Geomagnetic Observatory) predicted an increase to the level of a disturbance on November 17. After that, most of the authors already agreed on November 19. In the following days, the forecasts were pushed forward, finally to 21-22 November. And was there anything? Nothing! Solar activity dropped slightly. The geomagnetic field was quiet except for November 18 and 21. The development of shortwave propagation conditions was erratic, but not bad, with improvements on November 17, 19 and 24.
For forecasting, we can sometimes use observations obtained using a technique called "helioseismology". Its map of the sun's far side on November 22nd showed a huge active region. The corresponding heliographic longitude will appear at the eastern limb of the solar disk in about 10 days. After that, we expect an increase in activity and, of course, an improvement in shortwave propagation conditions.

F. K. Janda, A.R.S. OK1HH

e-mail: ok1hh(at)crk.cz; ok1hh(at)rsys.cz

Pmail: OK1HH(at)OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU